The OP got it right…100% in stocks for last 10 years has been very profitable
The Investment Thread (stocks, bonds, real estate, retirement, just not gold)
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The OP got it right…100% in stocks for last 10 years has been very profitable
I have been saying this for a while..short term I am optimistic because I knew the Fed would reverse course. Long term is always difficult to predict. So it is perfectly logical to take some chips off the table and pay off high interest debt.
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Irrelevant who is in office.
Trump is going to use the presidential megaphone to force JP to keep interest rate low. That is good for stocks…in the short term.
He is a politician.
I might not retire completely. I might work 8 days/month because hospital medicine is good gig from a monetary standpoint. Still will be able to make ~200k/yr + benefits working part time
It will be the same for the next 10-20 yrs
Most of my retirement investments are in large cap companies and I am up > 35% this year alone.
Not a big fan of small cap, bonds, international, emerging market etc...
Low interest rate is good for small caps
How small cap has done vs. large cap in the past 10 yrs when interest has been low?
Small cap outperformed big cap from 2009 to 2021 (before talks of rate increased)
5.5% and I guess home price might go up because of that.
That is why I think people should buy now and refinance in 1-2 years.
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Marry the house, date the rate.
As low as 5%
Just looks like a small correction after the big rise the last few weeks.
I think Colorado taking Trump off the ballot scared some investors. Political chaos is not good for investors
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It’s funny trying to correlate items in the news to general stock performance. It’s always retrospective (of course) and more than a little silly. Was all the political theatre stuff NOT happening while stocks were going up? But as soon as stocks drawback even a little you come to the conclusion that whatever the most recent political thing was the cause of the draw back? Ridiculous.
It’s not a good use of time to try to determine the specific news items that cause drawbacks imo. It could be noise, general macro environment conditions, or any number of cumulative effects. There are always positive and negative things in the news and you can always cherry pick whichever ones you want to explain why the market rose or fell. If it were really that easy you could do it prospectively and make a fortune.
It’s not a good use of time to try to determine the specific news items that cause drawbacks imo. It could be noise, general macro environment conditions, or any number of cumulative effects. There are always positive and negative things in the news and you can always cherry pick whichever ones you want to explain why the market rose or fell. If it were really that easy you could do it prospectively and make a fortune.
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Bought the dip yesterday. Looks like the Santa rally is going to begin!
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I feel like there should be a separate thread for politics/war or whatever. I have no interest in discussing that. There has always been doom and gloom since the media has existed. I'm only interested in stocks.
They don’t influence stock prices?
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If you can figure out the relationship between news items and stock prices you will be the best investor on earth. So good luck with that.
Doesn’t that go with everything? That doesn’t stop us from discussing things
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SPY is up 24.5% YTD, you tell me.
Politics and war are always bad for the stock market? Was covid bad for the stock market?
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Yes that’s exactly what I am doing, discussing how silly it is to think anyone can correlate stocks and politics. What am I supposed to do, not discuss my opinion? But please by all means keep pointing out peaks and troughs on the S&P and correlating that to whatever is in the news. There are whole networks that do exactly that so clearly you are on to something.
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Stocks are almost guaranteed to go up over 30 year-horizons based on history. This is in spite of two global pandemics, two world wars, a Cold War which we almost annihilated the world with nukes, a Great Depression, and Great Recession.
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30 years? I remember reading there's no 10 year point in history where stocks didn't go up. Pick any year and ten years later, the market was higher.
Short term I am somewhat optimistic because the Fed will be pumping. Long term (5-10 years) I am pessimistic.
Europe and Asia were destroyed after WW2. The baby bloomer generation can buy a house and live a relatively comfortable life with just one income because there was no competition. The dollar became king. The U.S. military and economy then became the sole superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
That world changed in 2003 when the U.S. invaded Iraq and again in 2008 and 2020 when the Fed turned on the money printing machine after the housing bubble burst and covid hit.
Asset prices skyrocketed as a result but they also became detached from reality. Now whether they go up or down depends mainly the Fed. How much longer can the Fed print without causing inflation when debt to gdp has surpassed 120%? What would happen to asset prices when the Fed can’t print its way out like before?
US doesn’t really manufacture anything anymore besides weapons and onlyfans. Once the money printing machine runs out of ink, what is the U.S. going to give to other countries for their goods and services? Other countries are also no longer afraid of the U.S. military. They are moving away from the U.S. led international order where the dollar dominated.
The next 70 years won’t be the same as the last 70….expect the economy to continue to stagnate, inflation to be abnormally high and asset prices to suffer relative to inflation once the money printing machine no longer print.
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From the beginning of the year? How could anyone not be?
If we're counting from January 2022, that's a different story.
Big caps did well this year but small and mid caps, international, emerging, bonds didn’t do as well.
How much are you up YTD?
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Retirement is pretty much split between accounts at Fidelity and Vanguard. Fidelity is up pretty close to 25%, Vanguard only up 18%. that's a little disappointing. Probably need to rethink some of my life choices over the past 10 years.
I mean in $, not %
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Greater than or equal to six figures in each account.
That is pretty good..just your account or wife as well? How long have you been investing?
What happened to them?
I am not that far ~86k. Probably 70% of my 401k is into large caps and rest is into S&P 500 (which could be considered large cap). Therefore, 100% of my 401k is into large caps. Average return ~30%.
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Commercial real estate has up and down cycles. Short term leases allow tenants to ditch WeWork during a down cycle and pass on the risk to WeWork. Its business model was bound to fail.
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Just me. My wife has mostly been a stay at home mom. She does have a couple of small pensions and doesn't share my desire to retire early as she's already had like 10 years off, so she might support me a little in my old age.
I worked for a chain that is now owned by CVS for a few months before pharmacy school (and all through pharmacy school). At one year of service, I was eligible to contribute (with a company match) to their 401k. One evening, I'm reading the letter they sent me at work and the night pharmacist tells me to immediately start contributing 10%...she said I make so little, it'll a cheeseburger a week and I'll never miss it. I continued doing that for 10 years until I was able to max out the contribution. Let's call it 10 years at 10% and 10 years of maxed out contributions.
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