MSAR 2018 stat to best assess chance of applicant admission

[UCDavispremed92]

Question rephrased:
For a grouping of schools with similar MCAT/GPA medians, which is most likely to accept a single applicant?

Question specifics
- Measuring relative competitiveness of schools with acceptance stats: which is better, all else being equal, when making school selectivity comparison
• proportion of similar applicants (in-state / out of state if public) that receive an interview (ex. 20 interviews out of 2000 apps, 0.01)
• absolute quantity of interview offers - from larger applicant pool, so lesser proportion (ex. 40 interviews out of 5000 apps, 0.08)

* this is all under assumption that applicants are on a relatively even playing field once they get to the interview stage

Would anyone argue that proportion of applicants offered acceptances a better measure of selectivity because some schools with few spots interview very large base of applicants? I thought proportion of applicants that get to interview was a better assessment, because an individual's ability to perform in the interview is somewhat "baked in" on the basis of their disposition and degree of preparation.


Why I am interested in question
- The question informs how I will apply as a pessimist with regard to anticipated MCAT score, though I've prepared plenty.
• high GPA (3.87 sGPA, 3.94 cGPA)
• TBD on MCAT (June 2)
• June 1 single-school primary app verification w/out MCAT
• ~July 4 sending all complete apps
- Related realization
• better to underestimate than overestimate app strength/MCAT outcome
• for this reason, I am emphasizing <510 MCAT median schools (also applying all UCs) that are either privates or publics inviting to OOS / CA residents (making a list, but recommendations welcome)
• if I truly did underestimate MCAT score, I can expand pool further to more competitive schools (frantic, relatively low-stakes secondary writing) beyond my conservative pool that I am building on the basis of what's mentioned above


Thanks for your thoughts in MSAR stat assessment or my strategy as an applicant.

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[Zenabi90]

Question rephrased:
For a grouping of schools with similar MCAT/GPA medians, which is most likely to accept a single applicant?

How well do you fit their mission/vision/objectives? Are you in-state or OOS (yes you mentioned this)? If they're looking to fill a gap, like how Hackensack Meridian is trying to bolster the physician population in New Jersey, and CUSM is focusing on the Inland Empire, do you fit that particular parameter? If they're a research-heavy institution, are you a research-strong applicant? Community-service focused like Creighton, do you have a strong background in service? Do you have strong ties with the area they are located, especially the more rural-focused schools? Are you a legacy? Do you have connections aka do the faculty know you already, are you in a linkage post-bacc program, did you do your undergrad there and they have a strong predilection toward selecting graduates from their undergrad institution? Jokingly, can you donate a hospital wing?

In case you haven't noticed, very little of this information is readily available in the MSAR.

Of the bullets you listed, I think IS vs OOS is pretty important for most prospective applicants, but ratio of applicants to interviews, or ratio of applicants to slots is largely irrelevant/not meaningful. A large majority, if not all, medical schools get applicants that number in the thousands, and typically offer less than 200 seats. CNUCOM got 5500 last cycle for a class size of ~90. CUSM said they have over 2000 as of last week, despite having only opened their application for a month, offering only 60 seats and only private loans. The ratio is too small to be worth anything.

I thought proportion of applicants that get to interview was a better assessment, because an individual's ability to perform in the interview is somewhat "baked in" on the basis of their disposition and degree of preparation.

Yes and no.

Yes, schools are selective with their interviews. Most who get interviewed will get a slot somewhere. Just not necessarily there.

No, there are definitely applicants that completely bomb their interview day. This is why the interview is highly important. The reason being is that (ideally) all other aspects of your application are more easily polished. GPA is 4 years of spread out hard work, MCAT requires long, diligent preparation. Your ECs are carefully curated and planned as well. Your personal statement should be vetted a dozen times by a dozen different reputable/qualified editors, and secondaries are equally polished. Everything that you submit on the way to that coveted II:Interview Invite should be carefully crafted, and there should be nothing spontaneous or random about what you've submitted. You could be a perfect picture on paper, but in that room, you could be singing a completely different song.

The traditional interview, compared to your application, is a much more spontaneous affair. At least, it would be in the hands of skilled interviewers with a flexible format. Yes, you can prepare for the more common questions, but there are only so many questions you can prepare for. There are so many things that can be asked in an interview, ranging from the specific/concrete (What single experience has prepared you best for entering the medical profession?) to the abstract (What kind of ______ would you be? Think things like cookie, appliance, animal, car, etc). As a potential interviewer, my goal would be to get you comfortable enough to lower your guard, toss all of the rehearsed suck-up answers to the wayside, stop the performance charade (if there is one) and get to who you are as a person. I would want to know:
A. Would I be happy with you as my doctor?
B. Would I be happy with you as a colleague? (classmate if a student interviewer, MD if a physician/faculty
C. Would I be happy to have you represent the school I work for? (You carry the name of your medical school to clinical rotations, residency, fellowships, research conferences, patients, etc)

 

[Zenabi90]

Here's how I've seen it described many times, and I think it's worth posting here. Note this is not a cut and paste, it's borrowed/paraphrased/reimagined from sources like LizzyM, Goro, gonnif, and others who have posted thoroughly about the application screening process here on SDN, and they deserve our thanks.

Let's say the school is offering 150 slots for next year's class.
First, we have a huge auditorium, capable of fitting thousands, replete with food, water, bathroom facilities, computers, and beds. Everyone who submits their primary gets to come to the front door of the auditorium and pays their $37 admission, comes in and spends some time here. (5000-10000 applicants)

As you wait around, names get called. A lot of names. Pay $100+ and you get to submit a second application that is your ticket to a second, smaller auditorium. Not every name will get called. That's just how it is, for many reasons, and that's how it should be. (several hundred to a few thousand applicants)

Now, leading from the smaller auditorium, imagine a long staircase with maybe 150 steps. At the top of this long staircase is a much smaller room with 150 seats, mimosas, and tailors ready to measure you for that white coat. The stair right outside this smaller room is stair 1, and the bottom stair is stair 150.

Now they start sending out batches of interview invites, usually starting with most qualified/interesting candidates. Everyone who gets an interview invite is interviewed, and then one of three things happens: adcom says thanks but no thanks, the applicant gets offered a seat in the smaller room, or the applicant is placed on the staircase. Where you get placed, whether in that room with seats or on the staircase, depends on your ENTIRE application. GPA, MCAT, background check, any red flags, work history, SES, diversity, ECs, personal statement, secondaries, interview, staff/student interaction experiences, etc. These all get weighed in terms of where to place you.

If you're in the room, congrats! Now the onus is on you. Do you accept, or go somewhere else? Let the school know ASAP, because if you choose elsewhere, they need to fill that seat with another deserving candidate.

If you're on the staircase, your spot is not static. You can get moved up the staircase, if those ahead of you withdraw their name from consideration or are offered a seat, or those offered a seat decline. You can also get moved down the staircase if other, more qualified candidates appear. Like for example, post-interview, you were assigned stair 27. That's a pretty good place to be. But in the next round, someone did just as well as you in their interview, but have more diverse ECs or work experience. They get assigned stair 27 and now you're on stair 28. But the adcom realizes it's getting late in the interview season, and decided to move steps 1-25 into the room and offer them a seat. Now you're stair 3. Great place to be, considering a few of those 25 just moved into the room may not matriculate, and whatever seats are still unassigned, but you can still go up or down.

For every round of interviews, the adcom reviews who stands where on the staircase and how many seats are left in the room, and adjust accordingly, until interview season is over and the room is full.

 

[UCDavispremed92]

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I'll just add my background here for completeness.

Political Science Major
- 3.87 sGPA, 3.94 cGPA
- 2 years of research
- 9 months as ER tech (EMT-certified)
- 3 months as healthcare policy analyst intern for major healthcare lobbying group in Sacramento
- 5 weeks of clinical work in South Africa (same area as research)
- 1 year of clinical work in undergraduate university-associated rural clinic
Current:
- ER scribe
- Congressional Campaign Leadership Position
• Federal (House of Reps)

**no non-clinical volunteering (besides as component of clinical volunteering-based program, or so I think) - how problematic is this?



QUOTE: Are you in-state or OOS (yes you mentioned this)?....

These are all highly salient considerations, across the board.


- However, my intent was to, as a first step, rank schools (aside from in-state) solely according to "ease of acceptance," (to the degree can be quantified with MSAR data) for an applicant such as myself, with high GPA and TBD MCAT (pessimistic outlook).
• In other words, putting school/applicant-specific and unquantifiable considerations temporarily aside
- Within that context, I am asking whether the relative proportion of like applicants (OOS, where applicable) granted interviews across schools with similar admission stats is a reasonable proxy for relative ease of admission?

How I applied these considerations to MSAR data:

- 1st: sorted schools from low-to-high MCAT, starting at low end, and considering schools with median MCAT of up to ~512
• my GPA is in ~90th percentile of acceptances for virtually all of these schools
- among these schools, I compared proportion of like applicants (OOS, if applicable) granted interview
• schools with low proportions eliminated

- open (statistical) question:
• schools A and school B grant 0.xx proportion of like applicants (OOS, where applicable) interviews
• school B has 3x as many spots/applicants as school A
• QUESTION: In this scenario (I have noted several real instances), which school is a better bet for a competitive applicant?? (rusty on relevant statistical considerations - intuition is that it is A as greater absolute number of upper-end outlier applicants at school B)

- Secondary school list narrowing step: When a sizable list is compiled in this manner, I would then narrow the list further on the basis of additional considerations that are more specific to my applicant/the school profile, as you have mentioned.


Application/Interview Considerations

I have in my employ an expert on screening red flags within all elements of written application and training for interview. This person is selective as to who they take on, and has something like ~95% first-cycle matriculation rate. Writing samples are anonymously referred to current admissions for red-flag screening as well. However, they do not advise on where to apply, just screen first-draft written primaries/secondaries and interview/correspondence optics (or I'd ask them).

MCAT Question

And, one brief somewhat-related question: is there a meaningful distinction between submitting complete primary (pre-verified, now with MCAT) on July 3 vs. July 17? Sounds silly, but the extra 2 weeks for MCAT prep would be nice.

Thanks

 

[Zenabi90]

**no non-clinical volunteering (besides as component of clinical volunteering-based program, or so I think) - how problematic is this?

For most applicants, it's pretty problematic. With your PoliSci background, government work, EMT/ER work, I would say that it is much less so. I would suggest you add at least 50-100 hours between now and July (5-10 hours/week), preferably in a single position. For example, tutoring at a local library program for 1 hour on each weekday would satisfy this requirement.

- open (statistical) question:
• schools A and school B grant 0.xx proportion of like applicants (OOS, where applicable) interviews
• school B has 3x as many spots/applicants as school A
• QUESTION: In this scenario (I have noted several real instances), which school is a better bet for a competitive applicant?? (rusty on relevant statistical considerations - intuition is that it is A as greater absolute number of upper-end outlier applicants at school B)

This is an interesting question, and I want to make sure I have it right. Schools ACOM and BCOM give the same proportion of like applicants interviews, say 1 out of 50 (150 out of 7500). BCOM has 150 slots per 7500 applicants; ACOM has 50 slots per 7500 applicants.

I think statistically, BCOM appears to give far fewer interview invites per available slot and thus is far more selective with their pre-interview selection process. I am tempted to state that this favors the more highly competitive applicant, but thinking deeper, it may be more correct to state that this works against the less competitive applicants. Yes, a very fine line, but an important one I think.

And yes BCOM may have a greater absolute number of outlier interviewees due to their more selective process, but I think it must be balanced by taking into account the greater number of slots available. Unless I'm misreading.

MCAT Question

And, one brief somewhat-related question: is there a meaningful distinction between submitting complete primary (pre-verified, now with MCAT) on July 3 vs. July 17? Sounds silly, but the extra 2 weeks for MCAT prep would be nice.

Very little if any. Even end of July with a strong application like yours is no problem, especially if you apply broadly (as all applicants should, if able).