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What will be the lowest price of oil/barrel over the next year? (until 10/07)

  • 58$

    Votes: 5 19.2%
  • 56$

    Votes: 4 15.4%
  • 54$

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 52$

    Votes: 4 15.4%
  • 50$

    Votes: 2 7.7%
  • 48$

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 46$

    Votes: 2 7.7%
  • 44$

    Votes: 2 7.7%
  • 42$

    Votes: 1 3.8%
  • 40$

    Votes: 2 7.7%
  • 38$

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 36$

    Votes: 1 3.8%
  • 34$

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 32$

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • <=30$

    Votes: 3 11.5%

  • Total voters
    26

ttac

Trust me, it's still fun.
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Alright,
What does everyone think the lowest price for oil will be in $/barrel over the next year? Oil is currently at 58$/barrel

I'm going to guess 50$/barrel...

I'm expecting at least 5 other votes in my poll representing 80% of everyone who reads this forum...

ttac

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I don't think its going to go much lower but that is just a guess. With winter closing in and even though its expected to be a mild winter with a mild el nino hovering around I don't think we will see prices below $50-5. WIth that said I'm putting $52 as its in the middle of them.

And hey, right now its 20% each for the 5 votes :laugh:
 
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IMO oil is temporarily oversold and will rebound here... I think the ethanol stocks are also in an oversold condition (stkl, peix, gsct.ob come to mind) and as a result I have bought 222,222 shares of gsct.ob at 0.040$ to play the bounce.

FYI I have played gsct.ob (formerly vrdm.ob) 3 times before and have been 3 for 3 on it before...

Do not try this at home.

ttac
 
IMHO the price cannot be accurately predicted to a specific degree because the forces controllilng the price right now are largely politcal.

OK, lets cut out the out of the ordinary things that can whack the market up. E.g. terrorist attacks to the degree where they really mess up the economy.

OPEC stated they do not want oil to fall below $50. They probably will do something big time if it goes below $55. They've already started to do things--they state they'll cut production because the price in their minds is falling too fast.

So this is not a matter where true market forces are at stake. The people who control the valve stated they will tighten the flow.

But where will they tighten it? Based on what they say, it'll probably be somewhere at or above $50, but won't be above $60. However even the nations of OPEC don't fully agree on a specific point.

Throw in that several of the cycles in the past few weeks have largely been based on speculators thinking the price would eventually stabilize, yada yada yada.

Other factors to consider is the increased demand for oil that occurs in late fall to winter--which will drive prices up, that the White House is trying to prevent OPEC from tightening the flow &

So this ain't a simple supply vs demand thing. Politics & speculation are interfering.

Bottom line from Whopper: it won't below past $55, and may go up again come late fall or early winter, but for the time being, it'll be a tug of war as to where it will be--it'll probably fluctuate heavily around between $58-65 for the next few weeks.

Ethanol: I think its a dead industry. Corn ethanol is not better for the environment (sugar ethanol is, but its not a viable ethanol source in the US) and it costs more than gas. By the time ethanol could actually go somewhere, other alternative sources will come in. At some point all the environmentalists who push for it will realize its actually not beneficial for the environment. It'd take decades before ethanol could actually become a fuel source cheaper & better than gas, but by that time fuel cells will probably be viable. In the meantime, no one will want to fill up their car for something that costs more and their car will not run as well on it.

Ethanol though I think for the short term may benefit from higher spikes in oil prices--because people don't get that it won't become a viable fuel source.
 
Ethanol though I think for the short term may benefit from higher spikes in oil prices--because people don't get that it won't become a viable fuel source.

Agreed. Long term ethanol is not the wave of the future... I don't think we'll see a fleet of E85 vehicles rumbling down the NJ Turnpike anytime soon... but I am merely playing it for the speculative bounce that I think a bounce in oil prices will give it... Time frame is maybe 1 month.

ttac
 
According to Consumer Reports--drivers will not want to fill up on E85 when its more expensive than gas. Car companies have used tax credits earned by making E85 vehicles and shifted the savings to making cheaper SUVs that don't use E85--which in turn has caused more fuel inefficient vehicles on the road. Consumer Reports had this in their last issue.

The conspiricist in me wonders if this was actually the intent of the bill that allowed for E85 incentives. It would be the perfect stealth bill. It looks like its green, but actually allows for more oil consumption.

Further, while corn ethanol does have fewer CO2 emissions, it has more nitrous oxide emissions which also are greenhouse gases. Bottom line, its not better for the environment in the global warming sense.

For the nation to create a viable ethanol infrastructure (ethanol cannot be mixed in the current gasoline infrastructre), the cost in fuel to make this infrastructure will actually dramatic increase the amount of greenhouse gases for at least a few years according to Investor's Business Daily.

I never revealed this to the board, but I am a passionate environmentalist. I recycle, I drive a Prius, I get any styrofoam I don't use and reuse it or bring it to a packaging store for them to reuse it.----But I'm not an emotionalistic environmentalist. I try to do it based on practicality and evidenced based science. Environmentalists like most demographics (to make this fair & balanced, other demographics such as the religious right also) have an emotionalistic whip that push the movement in illogical ways.

Ethanol is not the way to go. The only problem keeping people from realizing this is that politicians want to carry Iowa which is big corn producer, so every election time, you get a round of politicians promising to push corn ethanol in Iowa and won't address the truth.
 
I totally agree with you... ethanol imho was utterly hyped because, well, the powers that be could make money off of it. I don't think it is the wave of the future, but I do believe that oil is temporarily oversold, and as it bounces, so with ethanol.

Thanks for your thoughts, however. I don't have much more to contribute since you obviously know more than I do re: ethanol...

ttac
 
IMO OPEC will cut production by 1M barrels, and oil will rise on monday. Should be good for my speculative ethanol play...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/08/news/international/bc.energy.opec.reut/

OPEC ready to cut oil supply
Ministers committing to 1 million barrel a day production cut in effort to reduce stockpiles.
October 8 2006: 1:42 PM EDT


ALGIERS, Algeria (Reuters) -- OPEC is expected to make formal Monday a deal to remove 1 million barrels a day of crude from oversupplied markets, an OPEC source said, as ministers lined up to support the cut.

Iran, OPEC's second biggest producer, and Algeria on Sunday publicly backed the reduction, OPEC's first since April 2004. The plan was made public on Thursday by a senior OPEC delegate.

"I think there is more or less consensus for 1 million bpd," OPEC President Edmund Daukoru told Reuters by telephone Sunday. "The reference point is the (official) 28 million bpd ceiling."

An OPEC source said Daukoru had written to oil ministers in the last two days seeking their backing for the supply curbs.

"It is expected that there will be a decision on Monday to cut one million barrels per day from the official ceiling after consultations between the ministers," the source told Reuters

Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil also said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had reached a consensus to lower output. This would have a positive impact on the market, he added.

<snip>

24805BP~The-Simpsons-Mr-Burns-Excellent.jpg


ttac
 
TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...

Maybe you should try gold or silver.

Gold and silver's price is almost directly correlated to the price of oil now.

TRE & AUY are repsectively silver & gold mining companies--also who's prices are pretty much very much tied to the price of gold & silver.

Gold & silver will always be universally accepted. Ethanol at some point will be dumped for good.
 
TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...

This is strictly a short-term trade. I repeat... a short-term (like weeks or less) trade.

Oil is going up tomorrow, thanks to opec and North Korea's test.

ttac
 
TTAC

If you're betting on ethanol because you're expecting it to go up when oil goes up, and expecting it to go down when oil goes down...

Maybe you should try gold or silver.

Gold and silver's price is almost directly correlated to the price of oil now.

TRE & AUY are repsectively silver & gold mining companies--also who's prices are pretty much very much tied to the price of gold & silver.

Gold & silver will always be universally accepted. Ethanol at some point will be dumped for good.

If you want gold, I'd go for KRY... one of the best daytraders in my group is long 20K at 2.69... (not a big position for him... usually plays with 100,000$ positions, tho)

ttac
 
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Oil went up, but only briefly.

IMHO, it will go up, when the winter market demands starts kicking in--which will be in a few short weeks.

Looks like the bulls were able to shrug off OPEC's production cuts and the N. Korea rantings.

The stock I was riding on--TRE to profit off the anticipated oil spike--went up to 5.14 today. I sold it at 5.08. I thought it would've gone higher, I was wrong, but I still made some decent money. I bought it at 4.67.
 
yeah, a little disappointing...
oh well... may bail tomorrow. We'll see. Oil probably has more weakness to come.

btw how many shares are you trading, and how long were you holding tre? since oct 4th? you can pm if you want.

ttac
 
Dammit!!!
 

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Oil may hit 55$...

guess OPEC has somewhat lost the power to put fear in the oil markets...
oh well, at least my gsct.ob is up.

ttac
 
Oil went up, but only briefly.

IMHO, it will go up, when the winter market demands starts kicking in--which will be in a few short weeks.

Looks like the bulls were able to shrug off OPEC's production cuts and the N. Korea rantings.

The stock I was riding on--TRE to profit off the anticipated oil spike--went up to 5.14 today. I sold it at 5.08. I thought it would've gone higher, I was wrong, but I still made some decent money. I bought it at 4.67.

Nice trade!
looks like you were close to catching the top. I bet it pulls back to 4.75

ttac
 
I don't mind posting it. I'm working with about $5000 worth of TRE stock. About 1/3 of my stock portfolio. I got another $6000 in a side business where I sell toys online. Not to brag but I'm almost spot on with my toy business in terms of picking future hits, but the problem with the toy business is that I sell on Ebay and can only sell a few toys a week. So if I buy for example 50 action figures, I got to sit on them for about 6 months, and I end up selling them for 4-6x their value but can only sell a maybe 1 a week.

I'm trying to get a hold of Playstation 3's to sell in my toy business. I got 5 preordered. Hoping for more. If it sells as well as Xbox 360--then I'm in the money. If not, I can just return them to the store at no loss.

I made 2 runs on TRE in the past month that ranged from about 4.65 to 5.08 I could've made 3 but I took a vacation in Europe and internet access costed me about $10 for 15 minutes (the exchange rate now blows). Add to that the european keyboards were freakin annoying and my wife didn't want me spending time daytrading when we could've been seeing the Eiffel tower.

I'm currently waiting for it to drop again to about the 4.60 level. I'm confident it will based on the current volatility with oil. ITs been staying steady at a little over 5 now.

Be careful if you plan on using this play. I've done my research on it--you haven't. Always double check before you jump in yourself. I can't be held responsible if it doesn't work out for you. Another thing is a few times it dipped, it didn't quite get to the 4.60 level. A few times it hit about 4.75-4.80. You'd certainly feel like a shmuck if you missed a 4.75-5.10 run. So if you limit buy, be careful. You might miss the boat.

I plan on riding the volatility for as long as possible, then when it appears oil hits its low and then rebounds---I plan on holding on to the stock--waiting for it to build up, then sell it off in a big bang. I believe at this point that rebound will be when the winter demand for oil starts kicking in. I could of course be wrong and all of this can change.

A good way to predict the day's oil prices is to simply wake up before the stock market opens and read bloomberg.com's oil coverage in the European and Asian markets. Oil prices are always fluctuating except on weekends--because the markets are open 24 hours a day. When the US closes--the Asian markets are up. Oil is traded universally.

One last comment is TRE has had a lot of volatility. I'm thinking the shareholders as a group may be sick of it and are just holding onto it for now--maybe waiting for the winter season to increase oil prices. Reason why is despite a lot of extreme news (the OPEC announcement, N. Korea's nuke tests, the plane hitting the buildings) it hasn't moved much in the last few days. I would've anticipated it moving a lot more based on the same news if it were a few weeks earlier.
 
thanks for the post...

One last comment is TRE has had a lot of volatility.

hehe... you haven't seen volatility until you played the otcbb stocks... my gsct.ob is up 61% in a week and a half since I bought it at 4c... lol

probably selling in the next few days.
ui


ttac
 

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I made 2 runs on TRE in the past month that ranged from about 4.65 to 5.08 I could've made 3 but I took a vacation in Europe and internet access costed me about $10 for 15 minutes

;)
I'm guilty of the same thing... traded in internet cafes in prague... and somewhere in germany... lol

It's fun to not talk about medical things all the time... thank goodness I've found studentDAYTRADER.net :D :D :D

ttac
 
Here's another reason why ethanol is running today, and will probably continue...

http://www.platts.com/HOME/News/6304726.xml?sub=HOME&p=HOME/News&?undefined&undefined

Bush administration open to boosting ethanol targets: Bodman

St. Louis, Missouri (Platts)--12Oct2006
The Bush administration is open to raising mandatory ethanol consumption
targets set by Congress, as well as to new tax credits or other financial
incentives to get more ethanol-powered vehicles on American roads, Energy
Secretary Samuel Bodman said Thursday.

In an interview at a renewable energy conference the Energy Department is
hosting in St. Louis, Bodman said the administration would continue to look
for ways to expand the number of ethanol pumps across the country and the
number of flexible-fuel vehicles available, but in a "fashion that doesn't
require mandates."

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have proposed requiring oil
companies to install ethanol pumps and automakers to produce vehicles that can
run on ethanol. Bodman said the administration may support incentives to spur
automakers to make more flex-fuel cars, but he said the decision to do so
would be left to individual companies because it requires a "big commitment."

Bodman did not rule out administration support for increasing the
mandatory renewable fuels standard targets that Congress set in 2005 as a
means of boosting ethanol supplies. Ethanol production alone is expected to
meet the RFS' 7.5 billion gal renewable fuels requirement for 2012 years ahead
of schedule and advocates are pushing the administration and Congress to raise
the standard.

Bush is slated to address the conference this afternoon.

--Mike Schmidt, [email protected]
 
I'd still be wary of ethanol. Now oil is projected to possible go below even $50. I haven't been tracking ethanol stocks so you probably know more about this than I. Just saying you might not want to put your money into it except for short term volatilty reasons at this point.

I'm going to stick to metals while riding the oil market volatility. One good thing I like about it is I can easily track the metals markets in other countries before our market opens--knowing full well ahead of time if they will go up or down before the US markets open.
 
I'd still be wary of ethanol. Now oil is projected to possible go below even $50. I haven't been tracking ethanol stocks so you probably know more about this than I. Just saying you might not want to put your money into it except for short term volatilty reasons at this point.
QUOTE]

totally agree with you here... I'm bailing out of ethanol in the next 2-3 days, for certain.

I think the strength will last into tomorrow for sure, possibly monday, but I don't think I'll take any chances.

ttac
 
Well as you probably now know, oil did go up today so I hope your ethanol stocks have as well. Today might be a day to pull out.


Several analysts have been on CNBC and all of them are giving different answers on where oil will go. Some say it will go below even 50. Others are saying it'll be up again soon.

IMHO--I think it will go up--when the winter demand kicks in. IT won't be a skyrocketing increase, but it'll be enough to make some nice returns for a investment you'll have to sit on for only a few days to weeks.

Sometime in the next month I think may be the time to keep onto stocks that go up with oil prices.

The things I don't know that I got to research is the forecasted weather trends.

One good website I've been using is oil.com. They got all the latest oil news--but its just news. There's no opinions from analysts.

Of course this is all speculation on my part. Anyone with differing opinions--I'd like to hear them.
 
Still holding my gsct.ob... I'm up on paper 92% on my 9000$ investment in about 2 weeks... however, gsct is becoming heavily overbought over the past few days... still, today was a solid consolidation day and I see more strength in the near future. Make make a blowoff top tomorrow. Having played this stock on the initial explosion from 4 to 32 cents, however, I know what it is capable of.
Nonetheless, plan on bailing on mon-tues, maybe wednesday at the very latest.

ttac
 
If you want gold, I'd go for KRY... one of the best daytraders in my group is long 20K at 2.69... (not a big position for him... usually plays with 100,000$ positions, tho)

ttac

Hmm... well, the best daytrader was right... KRY is absolutely exploding... yeah, he only made 7000$ today... of course he is still holding.

kry at 3$, up 10%+ in just a few days...

ttac
 
tried to sell all 220k at 0.075 this morning... only 100k filled at 0.077... sold 60k later at 0.068... now holding 60k

up 5500$ actual profit in 2 weeks, still holding 60k shares from 0.0397(another 1600$ paper profit at current prices)

shoulda bailed at 8c yesterday. damn.

on to the next one,
ttac
 
Sold all the rest on a limit order at 0.068...
total: + 7.1K. done with ethanol... I think it is pretty much toast but I might reenter gsct.ob at 0.048...

ttac

onto nbix next... imo this will hit 16-18 within 2 months.
 
in for 1300 shares of nbix at 12.50... really just a place to park my money while I wait for the next opportunity. Target is perhaps 16 in a few months... looks like a pennant/flag which should hopefully break to the upside in the next few days, at least 1-2$, but I may just take little scalps if the opp presents itself.

ttac
 
Now that the North Korea temper tantrum has quieted, and OPEC already made their announcement, I think oil will go down for the next few days, barring some type of unexpected news like a terrorist attack.

I do think it will go up in a few weeks---when the winter demand starts kicking in.

My suggestion--probe the markets next week for stocks that go down when oil goes down--e.g. energy stocks, drilling, gold & silver. Then just sit on it till at least mid winter. The winter demand will drive up oil prices--and your investment.
 
Agreed...
etoh stocks are pretty much a scam imho, and never was a buy long term, just that it was technically oversold and was a trade... I'm a day/swing trader, not an investor. I still believe that oil will hit the low 50's, probably 50-52 or so, before it bounces, and gsct will probably be back under 5cents.
Oil I believe is still overbought in the long term, and will go down significantly more. I suspected this first when the opec tantrum was causing less of an effect than I would have expected. Still, I was also very lucky in guessing the bottom of gsct based on my past experience trading it, and a hell of alot of luck. My previous trades in gsct were only for a profit of like 2000$, 3000$, and 2000$ each, so I gotta say that I got really lucky here to make 7000$.

Anyway, now I am looking at dovp (when it capitulates at possibly 50c), nbix (which I am in now) and possibly a small position in nsmg.pk (maybe 2k$)

Was up 650$ in nbix... which of course I lost back today (lol) but nbix is one of those stocks that can run 1-2$ in a day on some PR (which I am sure they have)... I fully expect nbix to hit 20$ within 4-6months, so I don't mind holding my money in it.

ttac
 
Agreed...
etoh stocks are pretty much a scam imho, and never was a buy long term, just that it was technically oversold and was a trade... I'm a day/swing trader, not an investor. I still believe that oil will hit the low 50's, probably 50-52 or so, before it bounces, and gsct will probably be back under 5cents.
Oil I believe is still overbought in the long term, and will go down significantly more. I suspected this first when the opec tantrum was causing less of an effect than I would have expected. Still, I was also very lucky in guessing the bottom of gsct based on my past experience trading it, and a hell of alot of luck. My previous trades in gsct were only for a profit of like 2000$, 3000$, and 2000$ each, so I gotta say that I got really lucky here to make 7000$.

Anyway, now I am looking at dovp (when it capitulates at possibly 50c), nbix (which I am in now) and possibly a small position in nsmg.pk (maybe 2k$)

Was up 650$ in nbix... which of course I lost back today (lol) but nbix is one of those stocks that can run 1-2$ in a day on some PR (which I am sure they have)... I fully expect nbix to hit 20$ within 4-6months, so I don't mind holding my money in it. IMO it was manipulated today for options expiration...

ttac
 
Sold nbix 12.41 for a loss of maybe 200?

inhx imo is right on the cusp of a b/o... long 10k at 1.61. Company has 2.24$/share in cash, cup and handle of the past couple of months.

Starting to get talked about on the mb's
Downside risk... maybe to 1.50... upside... 2.25?

ttac
 
Hey

I just started to realize--its now starting to get cold. Not to the point where its frigid, but to the point where in about a week or 2, I'd figure the demand for oil will go up because of heating.

I'm figuring this is the week to buy a stock that is dependent on oil prices.

I'm going with TRE or AUY.

AUY is Cramer approved. (I know some of you will actually get turned off by that!)

Anyways, I'm going to target AUY at about mid 8.80s and stick with it till maybe end of winter, unless something makes me believe oil will drop further.

TRE has had a low in the past few weeks of about 4.50 but it seems like it might not go lower than 5.25 now. It has little volume and the people I think who have it now will stick with it.
 
Hey Whopper,
ALtho it is getting colder, I do think oil will get down to 52 before it bounces... opec's threats just aren't carrying the weight they did.
That being said, I was WAaaay off on calling tre to pull back to 4.75... lol
glad I didn't short.

going to take a break from trading/posting a bit... besides, it seems that although there are tons of people that view my posts here, you're the only one that replies...

Think I'm going to stick with inhx for a bit. This is one of those stocks that has the kind of rounded bottom that portends a possible spike on news. OTOH, I'd be surprised if it dropped below 1.50, so I'm not really risking much. This is probably a multi-month play (lol, that's what I said about nbix... then somx came out with their news this morning and I took it all back).

Anyway, good luck with your stox. I'll post if I sell inhx fwiw.

ttac
 
Yeah, its like we're the only 2 guys here!

Anyways--oil shot up today. The big question is--will it hover around the same price, go down or go up. Long term--IT WILL GO UP, but I don't know what's going to happen for the next few days.

I was all geared to buy up AUY & TRE today, but the oil prices shot up--making them shoot up. If they dip to a level where I want to buy--I'm going for it. I'm still sticking with AUY somwhere below 9.

I don't think TRE will dip much more. It hasn't at all in the past few days indicating the longs are holding onto this baby.
 
Maybe they are interested in your speculation theories ;)

I don't trade nor am I interested in the "nitty" details of particular stocks but its an interesting read. I'm just looking to see what the oil prices are and how close they are to my $52 that I guessed. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll see it below $60 again ...
 
Yeah well in hindsight, I think I was actually pretty accurate with my predictions, though I was off by 1 week with oil.

ITs up now. I was waiting for one more big dip in oil to start buying up stocks that go up with oil--but that time may have passed. If there's another dip--I'm jumping on it.

I guess that's the problem with investing as a resident. I don't have big bucks to invest so some of my money gets tied up by a few days and those are the days I missed a potential big hit.

Had I had 6 figures to invest, I known I wouldn't have missed AUY for 8.90 on Monday, (its at about 9.50 today) but my funds were all caught up in other stuff.

One more thing to add. I spent a lot of time the last few weeks watching stocks. I'm working with about $20,000 to invest. In just 2 years I'll be making a heck of lot more money. I ought to just put it into longs right now and just focus on studying and getting past USMLE 3.
 
Yeah well in hindsight, I think I was actually pretty accurate with my predictions, though I was off by 1 week with oil.

ITs up now. I was waiting for one more big dip in oil to start buying up stocks that go up with oil--but that time may have passed. If there's another dip--I'm jumping on it.

I guess that's the problem with investing as a resident. I don't have big bucks to invest so some of my money gets tied up by a few days and those are the days I missed a potential big hit.

Had I had 6 figures to invest, I known I wouldn't have missed AUY for 8.90 on Monday, (its at about 9.50 today) but my funds were all caught up in other stuff.

One more thing to add. I spent a lot of time the last few weeks watching stocks. I'm working with about $20,000 to invest. In just 2 years I'll be making a heck of lot more money. I ought to just put it into longs right now and just focus on studying and getting past USMLE 3.

yeah, i think at this point you should be maxing out your studying (focusing on your future, much larger income) instead of worrying about making 2-3k here or there. don't be penny wise and pound foolish!

btw, i don't trade that much either - any short term things i do always involve options, and mostly with large cap issues that i am familiar with. but it has been interesting reading about the world of pink sheet investing
 
Trading definitely is just a hobby... I could lose it all at any time, so I try to keep things in perspective. As a hobby, though, it is variously frustrating, fun, annoying, consuming, and yet I still do it :rolleyes:

I actually find it very interesting, and here are some interesting links:
a
http://www.fmew.com/archive/lies/
http://www.ncans.net/ (overstock, esp)

http://www.afajof.org/pdfs/2004program/UPDF/P306_Asset_Pricing.pdf

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/WallStreetsBiggestLosers.aspx

my favorites are "Mr. Five Percent" and the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the world silver market...

ttac
 
Sold inhx for a 300$ loss at 1.58
willing to take an all or nothing gamble.

I do not believe dovp goes to oblivion, and I think it is worth a gamble here from it's fall from 18$...

long 40k shares at 0.39.

either to 0 or to 2$.

If it goes to 0, at least I will have alot more free time.
ttac
 
I am very suspicious why a big firm like citigroup would go so far as to ensure the destruction of the dovp stock with their pr.

ttac
 
Alright. Going to stay long dovp until it either gets utterly destroyed to 2.5cents, then I will take my 1000$ and buy myself a nice CD. With my 50$ profit at the end of the year, I will buy 2 copies of this book and burn it.

http://www.amazon.com/Jim-Cramers-Real-Money-Investing/dp/0743224892

or, I will hold for a 5 bagger when dovp averts bk.
Today appeared like capitulation to me, and I believe bk is factored in here, and although this may gap down tomorrow, I think the capitulation is finished. So I believe the upside is maybe 1.50 and the downside 20 cents.

We'll see over the next few weeks... I can guarantee it won't be boring, either way.

ttac

p.s. don't try this at home :cool:
 
For those who care, here is my analysis of the situation.

1. dovp will be delisted tomorrow. May gap down. However, I think everyone who sold over the past 2 days knows this, and hence may actually bounce tomorrow

2. debenture holders can force dovp to pay 70 million... dovp only has 60 million, so they then will have to declare bk. However, my guess is that the debenture holders will find it much more profitable to load up cheap shares here, then say "well, we aren't going to force you to pay the 70 mil you owe us... We'll work some alternative timeline out".
If this happens, dovp should realistically go back up to 2-3$, making this a 5-7 bagger.

3. Even if dovp declares bk (And the most likely time would be sunday) then this may trade up... I have seen many weird scenarios in my 8 years of trading, and they include bk stocks declaring bk, then trading up 300-400% on short covering.

4. If all of this fails and dovp gets destroyed down to 2.5 cents, I will throw in the towel, and admit that it has been fun while it lasted.

ttac
 
All or nothing here...

This will either be the end of my daytrading career or I will be able to pay off my student loans completely. I'll take the chance. Maybe the former will be better as I will be able to concentrate on RSI and COPD rather than RSI and MACD...

bot 20k more dovp(.pk) 0.31

Now long 60k ave 0.363

Either they go bk (decent possibility this sunday) or they somehow get out of paying their debentures back immediately and this goes to 3$.
I'll put 20k on the line here.

ttac
 
My thoughts on oil prices.

There was a temporary surge in prices in the US following Katrina that lasted far longer than it should have and would otherwise have had we had a truely competitive market. We do not.

First the major petroluem producers are no longer in aggresive competition. In the past decade we have seen the mergers of Amoco-British Petroleum, Exxon-Mobil, ARCO-Marathon, Phillips-Conoco, essentially rebuilding, in large part, the original Standard Oil Company broken up by Teddy Roosevelt in the early 20th century. Recently the execs of three of these rogues were on a Sunday News Program (meet the Press?) and boldy announced that US prices should be the same as European prices, despite the fact that in Europe we can hop a train/subway/bus to get where we're going and the fuel prices in Europe are mostly tax to pay for inter alia, healthcare and social welfare programs. They have not justified taking nearly $100B out of the economy by enhancing exploration, maintenance or new facility construction projects.

We have for the better part of a decade heard every reason under the sun for the jacking of retail prices, from a pipeline break in Michigan to a refinery fire in Arizona to a whale giving birth off Santa Barbara. When these bastards were first allowed to re-merge (thank you Mr. Clinton and Mr. Gore) within 5 weeks, pump prices everywhere jumped from $1.25 to $2.25. Only when Congress threatened to jump in with both feet did they back off.

Now, they have even bigger friends in charge of government, Texas Oilmen. They are emboldened. The hurricane was a wonderful excuse, so let's rape 'em while we can. And they did with a vengeance. The run up in crude on the spot market was a speculative venture that I hope will see CMX and NYMEX traders jumping off the Empire State building. Natural gas prices went over $10/therm briefly. Now, they are at $3.50 and falling.

Why?

Americans, and others are resourceful people. Suddenly the SUVs and F350s got parked and the Saturns and Civics came out on the road. And shortly after the hurricane, our petroleum bunkers began to fill up. Slowly, they began to fill. And this was with long term delivery contracts, not the highly speculative spot market priced stuff, but oil still selling for $25-$35/barrel on year long delivery contracts. Now, our crude oill in storage is well above 5 year moving averages, refined gasoline stocks are well above 5 year averages and our natural gas bunkers are so full that there is absolutely no room to put the stuff. The oil oligarchy has no incentive to price shop. Supply is not the issue, since the Caspian Sea field has more reserves than most of Arabia and this is a new field not yet in production. So, based on speculative trading, they pushed prices as high as they dared to see where the choke point was. They did. Around $3.23/gal. So, now we consider $2.23 a bargain. Oiyyeee.

At $2, if we continue to conserve and squeeze efficiency out of each gallon as we did when we were dropping $60 to fill the tank, then the reserves will continue to grow. The oil oligopoly depends on flow, and when flow is reduced, eventually they have to stop filling tankers because they have no place to put the stuff. The oil field owners have come to depend on the cash so they need to keep the cash coming to pay for the palaces and toys, so the supply-demand equations will again exert force to bring balance to the price. It just takes longer and the sellers have much more control to keep a choke hold on prices than a truely competitive marketplace.

And that's my analysis. So, Around $36/bbl unless we get stupid again and keep on buying 9 mpg rolling stock.

Boycott BP! (If we all decide to boycott just Amoco BP, then we'll see how fast these thieves fold their cards!)
Boycott BP!
 
Natural gas prices went over $10/therm briefly. Now, they are at $3.50 and falling.

luckily my boys at chesapeake energy hedged most of 2006, 2007, and 2008 at these lofty natural gas prices, and the mark-to-market gains on those hedges have been phenomenal. we can't really boycott natural gas because it serves a vital purpose in heating our homes, and because the largest users are industry - such as the chemical companies.

with revenues approaching half a trillion dollars a year at the major intergrated oil & gas guys, a few people here and there boycotting won't make a difference. and it shouldn't. when oil prices were $10 a barrel and some firms were on the verge of bankruptcy, did we lend a helping hand? no. now all of a sudden profits are great, so everyone has their hand out. my thinking is I sure as hell can't beat them, so I join them. pick up some xom or cvx and reap the benefits on our dependence on oil.
 
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