... this is a futile question, IMHO, and to be brutally honest with you, it is not one I will waste my time pondering (I don't mean to be snarky or anything
). The beauty of the Match is that if I construct my ROL right and the programs express their true preferences, things should turn out in my best interest, i.e. I could not have matched at a place that I preferred to the one that I received as a result of the Match.
That said, after interviewing I am sure that I will have a better idea of which programs I prefer to spend the next 3 years at based on academics, environment, etc.
To throw it back out there, does anyone know people that did not match in previous years and why? For example, I understand some people rank too few programs or rely on promises by the PD and then end up not matching. In the EM boards, the consensus opinion seems to be that 5-6 is the magic number to end up matched. The NRMP data actually indicates it may be slightly higher than that.
Impact of Length of Rank Order List on Match Results
1996 - 2002
NRMP has collected data for the last seven years on the relationship between the average length of the Rank Order Lists (ROL) of matched applicants and filled programs vs. the average length of Rank Order Lists of unmatched applicants and unfilled programs. Reviewing the data shows that there is a consistent pattern of matched applicants and filled programs having longer ROLs than unmatched applicants and unfilled programs.
Applicant Data
Year Match'd Avg Length of ROLs Unm'd Avg Length of ROLs
1996 73.3% 6.43 26.7% 5.38
1997 69.6% 6.89 30.4% 5.16
1998 69.8% 7.32 30.2% 4.95
1999 70.4% 7.42 29.6% 5.06
2000 74.7% 7.28 25.3% 4.82
2001 78.1% 7.40 21.9% 4.71
2002 80.4% 7.46 19.6% 4.14
US Seniors Data
Year Match'd Avg Length of ROLs Unm'd Avg Length of ROLs
1996 92.7% 6.47 7.3% 5.68
1997 93.5% 7.07 6.5% 5.73
1998 94.4% 7.57 5.6% 5.10
1999 95.1% 7.76 4.9% 4.96
2000 95.2% 7.73 4.8% 5.18
2001 95.0% 7.88 5.0% 4.71
2002 95.6% 7.96 4.4% 4.62
The NRMP charges no additional fee up to a ROL of 15 programs
and $30 a program after that. I may be paranoid, but I plan to rank most pediatric programs that I'm interviewing at...