What are my chances

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I'm midway through my 3rd year at a mid-tier midwest MD program with a top-tier urology department. I've been considering applying to urology and soon I will have to pull the trigger on if I am going all in for the fourth year. However, I am concerned about my stats. I have received all HP thus far and in most clerkships, I was only one point away from honoring the shelf. I am listing some of my stats below.


Preclinical: Passed every course (most likely top 1/2 of class but supposedly we are not ranked)
Step 1: Pass
Clinical:
Family Medicine: HP (~70th percentile shelf score)
Psych: HP (~60th percentile shelf score)
Peds: HP ( ~50th percentile shelf score)
OBGYN: HP (~60th percentile shelf score)
Neuro: HP (~60th percentile shelf score)
Surgery: Pending
IM: Pending

Research:
Healthcare Disparities research concentration at my school ( 1 abstract, 3 posters, 1 oral presentation)

Urology research (I am 1st author and this project is with well-known faculty in the department) ( 1 abstract, 1 poster, 1 oral presentation) I am working on editing the manuscript so hopefully will submit that soon, could potentially present it at AUA but I will not find out until next month

Urology research (currently working on, potentially will have at least one first-author abstract, along with multiple other abstracts from this chart review)


Awards:
SNMA Research presentation award

Extra-curriculars:
OSR
Class Rep (during my first two years of medical school)
Volunteer at the SOC

LOC:
I will be receiving a LOR from someone very well-known in the urology field
I will receive a LOR from the chair of the department
Will most likely receive a letter from one of the urology fellowship directors ( I am working on a research project with him)
I haven't asked the last two people formally yet but they already mentioned to me that they will


I am really concerned about not having any honors and how much that will impact my application

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[DoctwoB]

Mid tier school in the Midwest with top tier Urology? Hope you enjoy watching RPLNDs. (Have heard it’s an awesome place though)

In all seriousness though sounds like an app that is competitive to match, but will struggle at top end, research heavy places. Focus on getting your publication out asap to have it on your app.

Apply broadly. Use your always to get your foot in the door at mid-competitiveness places in the region, think Iowa or Kansas or the like. Talk to your PD to gauge competitiveness and programs where your faculty have connections and a good word could go a long way.