Stock, the economy and the Fed for 2023

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And there are art school types doing useless fluff like this.




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Philosophy degrees earn more typically than any other humanities degree. I've seen graphs suggesting they earn more on average than Chemistry degrees. Most people aren't spending $80k/yr on them. You could do much worse than major in philosophy.
That chart strikes me as dubious in a number of ways.

I doubt philosophy grads are sitting around philosophizing and making $80K.

I wonder if those numbers are skewed by including the philosophers who go to law school ...
 
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That chart strikes me as dubious in a number of ways.

I doubt philosophy grads are sitting around philosophizing and making $80K.

I wonder if those numbers are skewed by including the philosophers who go to law school ...

I'm not sure I understand your point. The guy I was responding to was arguing that philosophy majors don't pay off. Does a lawyer with a philosophy degree not count?

Do biology majors who subsequently go into medicine not count as biology majors?
 
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I'm not sure I understand your point. The guy I was responding to was arguing that philosophy majors don't pay off. Does a lawyer with a philosophy degree not count?

Do biology majors who go into medicine not count as biology majors?
I was just suspicious that it appears the chart doesn't acknowledge education beyond the bachelor degree, when listing income by degree. Commenting on the chart, not the reason you posted it.
 
I was just suspicious that it appears the chart doesn't acknowledge education beyond the bachelor degree, when listing income by degree. Commenting on the chart, not the reason you posted it.

That's fair. I don't know of data that isolates out the subset of students that forgo further education beyond bachelor degrees and stratifies by major. I would argue that the utility of the degree shouldn't just be limited to those individuals in any case.
 
Been running a personal fire sale Friday, Monday, and Today. I guess that's means we have found bottom and buy up hahaha.

Reasons: Too fast a run up from the lows, too many negative factors, and too much bond interest. I still have a lot of market exposure so this is not so much a timing thing as a portfolio shift to more cash and bonds with the market risk/reward looking less favorable than earlier this year.

ps- Those voodoo charts are sending me secret messages to be cautious.
 
Donated a chunk of highly appreciated equities to my charitable fund. For those who like to give to charity and have highly appreciated stock, this is a good strategy. Works best if you donate a bunch in a single year in excess of the standard deduction.
Also been buying TIPs and increasing the duration of my TIPs holdings. Auction tomorrow for a ten year TIPs. Best for those willing to hold to maturity, can hold in a tax deferred account and approaching or in retirement. Selling I-Bonds that I have purchased in the last few years and taking the tax hit to get the increased yield of TIPs even though I have to hold in a taxable account.






 
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Strikingly similar pattern.... 🤔 😳
Still looks strikingly similar.
Still looks ominous.
What are people doing?
Look to me like technicals and momentum blown and knives falling from the sky.
Did another massive fire sale and into bonds before the Fed announcement. I can live with being wrong if that ends up the case. High rates and even if the market slide hits the brakes I don't see it hitting the accelerator.

Next few weeks could be really really fun.
 
Still looks strikingly similar.
Still looks ominous.
What are people doing?
Look to me like technicals and momentum blown and knives falling from the sky.
Did another massive fire sale and into bonds before the Fed announcement. I can live with being wrong if that ends up the case. High rates and even if the market slide hits the brakes I don't see it hitting the accelerator.

Next few weeks could be really really fun.
still doing the same thing buying every 2 weeks. and if market craps on a 2.5+% day, i might buy more.
 
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Donated a chunk of highly appreciated equities to my charitable fund. For those who like to give to charity and have highly appreciated stock, this is a good strategy. Works best if you donate a bunch in a single year in excess of the standard deduction.
Also been buying TIPs and increasing the duration of my TIPs holdings. Auction tomorrow for a ten year TIPs. Best for those willing to hold to maturity, can hold in a tax deferred account and approaching or in retirement. Selling I-Bonds that I have purchased in the last few years and taking the tax hit to get the increased yield of TIPs even though I have to hold in a taxable account.






You gave me a good idea. My paper i bonds that have been open for more than 5 years I should probably cash out and put into 10 year TIPS sounds like a great idea. I'm just so petrified of losing these paper i bonds. Also with real yields getting to 2% on 10 year TIPS this might be a good time to work on this transition. For short term money i've been buying 4 week T bills. Getting like 5.38%.
 
You gave me a good idea. My paper i bonds that have been open for more than 5 years I should probably cash out and put into 10 year TIPS sounds like a great idea. I'm just so petrified of losing these paper i bonds. Also with real yields getting to 2% on 10 year TIPS this might be a good time to work on this transition. For short term money i've been buying 4 week T bills. Getting like 5.38%.
You can also buy SGOV or USFR they yield pretty close to that and are much easier for the lazy
 
You gave me a good idea. My paper i bonds that have been open for more than 5 years I should probably cash out and put into 10 year TIPS sounds like a great idea. I'm just so petrified of losing these paper i bonds. Also with real yields getting to 2% on 10 year TIPS this might be a good time to work on this transition. For short term money i've been buying 4 week T bills. Getting like 5.38%.

Another article on cashing I-Bonds for TIPs:
 
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Definition: A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above inflation each year until maturity.

In essence, this TIPS will outperform U.S. inflation by 2.094% over the next 9 years, 10 months.
 
Definition: A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above inflation each year until maturity.

In essence, this TIPS will outperform U.S. inflation by 2.094% over the next 9 years, 10 months.
With Inflation expected to moderate a bit, you can buy a TIPs Mutual Fund/ETF vs the individual note. I owned a TIPs mutual fund in 2021 and 2022 so was destroyed when inflation took off. The fund got creamed. The reverse is also true in that the fund could outperform if inflation cools to 3% then 2.5%.
The less risky approach is to just buy the individual 10 year TIP so that you can't lose money. IN fact, you are guaranteed 2% over inflation which I predict will be sticky around 3% in 2024.
 
Here is a rundown of costs for a $10,000 investment:

  • Coupon rate: 1.375%
  • Auction’s high yield: 2.094%
  • Inflation index on Sept 29 settlement date: 1.00640
  • Par value: $10,000
  • Principal on settlement date: $10,064
  • Cost of investment: $9,426.07 (based on unadjusted price of 0.93661317)
  • Plus accrued interest: $28.58
  • Total cost: $9,454.65
In summary, an investor paid $9,426.07 for $10,064 in principal and will now receive accruals matching U.S. inflation plus a coupon rate of 1.375% for the next 9-years, 10 months. The accrued interest will be repaid at the first coupon payment.
 

An upgrade to first class?​

With short-term Treasuries and money markets offering yields between 4% and 5%, many investors may believe there is little point in taking off those cash seat belts. More than $5 trillion was in money market funds as of late June, according to SEC data.

But the rest of this year could be a good time to average into the more durable yields in longer dated maturities. Today’s higher yields provide cushion for market volatility, and bonds have traditionally done well after the Fed stops raising interest rates.

Inflation will dictate when that day comes. We believe the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep rates on hold for as long as possible. If a recession comes, rising credit spreads could dampen returns, but then, at some point, falling rates would provide a strong tailwind.

Nonetheless, with a fed funds rate well into restrictive territory, the potential remains for equity-like returns in fixed income when policy rates eventually normalize. For bond investors, that would be like an upgrade to first class.

 
Definition: A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the “real yield to maturity” of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above inflation each year until maturity.

In essence, this TIPS will outperform U.S. inflation by 2.094% over the next 9 years, 10 months.
If and only if held to maturity.
It is why your TIPs fund got creamed. So did the secondary market value of individual TIP bonds. Rising rate environment more than offset the positive adjustment to principal during a period of high inflation. On the positive side they did a lot better than nominal treasury bond funds or individual treasury bonds of similar duration.
 
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still doing the same thing buying every 2 weeks. and if market craps on a 2.5+% day, i might buy more.
I can't fault that strategy. You are probably young, working full time, lots of cash flow, lots of years to ride the waves, and probably little interest in being a market geek.

And for me, I can't fault myself for bailing and missing a possible next run up. For me the pain missing an unexpected run up from here is exponentially far less than the pain of watching a meltdown that I felt was the more likely outcome. I'm probably older than you, work part-time, have enough, but don't ever want to be "Oh damn, didn't see that coming" back to work full-time.

To me I see a triple threat of caution: bad market fundamentals (interest rates, debt, etc), historically overvalued levels, and most importantly, technically blown momentum which as far as I'm concerned drives more rally bubbles than anything else. That's just a distasteful cocktail of not-good that I'll gladly avoid even if I'm completely wrong.
 
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I can't fault that strategy. You are probably young, working full time, lots of cash flow, lots of years to ride the waves, and probably little interest in being a market geek.

And for me, I can't fault myself for bailing and missing a possible next run up. For me the pain missing an unexpected run up from here is exponentially far less than the pain of watching a meltdown that I felt was the more likely outcome. I'm probably older than you, work part-time, have enough, but don't ever want to be "Oh damn, didn't see that coming" back to work full-time.

To me I see a triple threat of caution: bad market fundamentals (interest rates, debt, etc), historically overvalued levels, and most importantly, technically blown momentum which as far as I'm concerned drives more rally bubbles than anything else. That's just a distasteful cocktail of not-good that I'll gladly avoid even if I'm completely wrong.
when you have won the game take your chips off the table.
 
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Another equally valid strategy is to buy when threads like this come to the top again...

Busy threads like this mean ppl are losing money, freaking out, so it's time to buy
That could be right.
Or not....

No freak out here. Hoping this bounce out of the channel today sustains back to the 4360 resistance level. Either way I'm a calm cool collected non buyer up or down.

Good luck
 
That could be right.
Or not....

No freak out here. Hoping this bounce out of the channel today sustains back to the 4360 resistance level. Either way I'm a calm cool collected non buyer up or down.

Good luck
I think 4360ish is a given. Whether it fills the gap to 4400 I don't have strong feelings.
 
Words like this are just a fancier way of saying "this handful of chicken entrails are scattered a little to the left" ...

Yeah seriously just buy high and sell low like everyone else
 
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Words like this are just a fancier way of saying "this handful of chicken entrails are scattered a little to the left" ...
Well then why should I stop there?
Currently close to doing an obligatory test of the channel breakout level of a couple of days ago. I think we get a reversal back up. Failing here would really look weak to me going forward.
 
Busy threads like this mean ppl are losing money, freaking out, so it's time to buy
Except that we are a lot closer to the yearly high than the yearly low. I'm going to try this new cool strategy called sell high buy low. I've tried the reverse and I swear it just doesn't work.
 
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Words like this are just a fancier way of saying "this handful of chicken entrails are scattered a little to the left" ...
Unknown.jpeg
 
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This buying/selling stuff is all just noise... you can make or lose 1 or 2 % this week or this month and wrack your brain maybe breaking even at best... or you could hold and sell in 15 years making 200% without a second thought
 
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This buying/selling stuff is all just noise... you can make or lose 1 or 2 % this week or this month and wrack your brain maybe breaking even at best... or you could hold and sell in 15 years making 200% without a second thought
Tell that to all the people that bought the NVDA's of the 90's, the Ciscos, Intels, and Qualcoms that went up 1000s of percent just like the magnificent wonderfuls of today. The stocks of all 3 of those phenomenal companies bought at their dot.com peaks haven't done jack in the TWENTY FOUR years since then. Where you buy matters.

I don't know which high flyers today will run that same course, but I do know the concept that the next 15 years has to automatically mirror the last 40 year bull market is nonsense, particularly when the bubble was largely fueled by debt spending and a steady consistent interest rate drop from 15% to zero percent.

In favor of your concept though is Blade Theory that states our sad pathetic government and Fed will always inflate asset losses at the expense of everyone else. So there is that.
 
Tell that to all the people that bought the NVDA's of the 90's, the Ciscos, Intels, and Qualcoms that went up 1000s of percent just like the magnificent wonderfuls of today. The stocks of all 3 of those phenomenal companies bought at their dot.com peaks haven't done jack in the TWENTY FOUR years since then. Where you buy matters.

I don't know which high flyers today will run that same course, but I do know the concept that the next 15 years has to automatically mirror the last 40 year bull market is nonsense, particularly when the bubble was largely fueled by debt spending and a steady consistent interest rate drop from 15% to zero percent.

In favor of your concept though is Blade Theory that states our sad pathetic government and Fed will always inflate asset losses at the expense of everyone else. So there is that.
Never buy individual stocks.
 
This buying/selling stuff is all just noise... you can make or lose 1 or 2 % this week or this month and wrack your brain maybe breaking even at best... or you could hold and sell in 15 years making 200% without a second thought
btw to be clear I don't day trade and don't recommend it. But I don't decade trade either. Somewhere between weeks and years all depending on how conditions, momentum, and value look to me.

At present I can't think of any reason for me personally to be invested much in stocks. Again, in no way does that mean I'll be right, but 08 was my best year in the market ever, so win or lose I'm going to bet on me.
 
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Anyone using a CFP? Wealth Management Company like Fidelity? I am not sure if these services cover their fees in terms of out-performance. In fact, they may underperform depending on how you set up your portfolio. They advertise tax loss selling, professional management and diversification.
 
Anyone using a CFP? Wealth Management Company like Fidelity? I am not sure if these services cover their fees in terms of out-performance. In fact, they may underperform depending on how you set up your portfolio. They advertise tax loss selling, professional management and diversification.


We use Fidelity as the custodian for our 401k so I get pitched by them a lot. I’ve never been too impressed by the experience and credentials of their “wealth managers”. Some of them are 5 years out of college. They are never ever Penn, Chicago or UCLA finance majors or MBAs. They are almost never chartered financial analysts. They are mostly frat bros from mediocre universities who started out as entry level sales people. If they actually have some secret sauce they would be managing their own large portfolios lying on a sunny beach instead of working for other people.


There’s another wealth management company called Balboa Wealth Partners located in Newport Beach. Sounds fancy, right? The company is full of CFPs and many of the advisors have solid backgrounds. They have a slick website and market themselves to “successful families”. Yet the average account size of their clients is $377k. Their average client is not even financially secure, let alone wealthy. Enough said.


 
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We use Fidelity as the custodian for our 401k so I get pitched by them a lot. I’ve never been too impressed by the experience and credentials of their “wealth managers”. Some of them are 5 years out of college. They are never ever Penn, Chicago or UCLA finance majors or MBAs. They are almost never chartered financial analysts. They are mostly frat bros from mediocre universities who start out as entry level sales people. If they actually have some secret sauce they would be managing their own large portfolios lying on a sunny beach instead of working for other people.


There’s another wealth management company called Balboa Wealth Partners located in Newport Beach. Sounds fancy, right? The company is full of CFPs. They have a fancy website and market themselves to “successful families”. Yet the average account size of their clients is $377k. Their average client is not even financially secure, let alone wealthy. Enough said.



Man my account size is more than 377k
Maybe all those newport beach people are too busy enjoying their 10 million dollar houses
 
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Man my account size is more than 377k
Maybe all those newport beach people are too busy enjoying their 10 million dollar houses


They have $513 million in assets under management split between 22 advisors and 1359 clients. So if the advisors collect 2% of AUM from their clients in fees, they average about $500k/yr. The advisors do okay collecting fees from their poor clients 😂
 
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This buying/selling stuff is all just noise... you can make or lose 1 or 2 % this week or this month and wrack your brain maybe breaking even at best... or you could hold and sell in 15 years making 200% without a second thought
The stock market is not an actuarial table. Stock markets have risk. Even for holding periods as long as 20 years.
 
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i bought a ton of bank stocks. BAC and citi
they tanked, lost a bunch of money. but what goes down must go up. so im holding
That statement is in conflict with your "like" of my post immediately above it.
 
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i bought a ton of bank stocks. BAC and citi
they tanked, lost a bunch of money. but what goes down must go up. so im holding

I bought a few shares of individual stocks (two) during the bullrun. They still sit in my account deeply in the red. Cheap lesson, TBH.
 
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i bought a ton of bank stocks. BAC and citi
they tanked, lost a bunch of money. but what goes down must go up. so im holding
Banks scare me. Too much mystery how much underwater Treasury and mortgage debt they own with those set at rates well below present levels.
 
Banks scare me. Too much mystery how much underwater Treasury and mortgage debt they own with those set at rates well below present levels.
yea definitely one of their risks! but at same time, too big to fail.e
earnings coming up for big banks. i believe they will continue to be strong for now

some people are scared by apples TSMC getting bombed risk
 
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