Question about SOAP and leftover spots

[Dr Meow]

Hi, I'm premed. Haven't started year 1 yet but I have a question about SOAP.

I've been checking out the data on the NRMP reports and there's a column called "number unfilled" positions for each specialty in the table detailing MD/DO/IMG total applicants.

But I'm confused. Between tables showing that the total number of applicants highly exceed the number of positions available, how can there by anything but 0 for number of unfilled positions?

Does that mean that certain programs are so stingy that even with a tremendous number of applicants, they would still rather not give the position to anyone?

This says that there are 2706 total MD applicant but only 1457 were filled. How can there by 3 unfilled positions? Why not just give the 3 positions to the remaining 1249 people that didn't get it?

Which leads me to my practical question:
If I am like the 1457, and fail to get in pre-soap, If I SOAP, are one of the 3 unfilled positions guaranteed to be filled by me? Afterall, there would still be 2 unfilled positions left.

And if it's the case that (if we assume) that each year, there's always unfilled positions, why not just do 0 applications and only SOAP to get the leftover 2 or 3 positions in anesthesiology

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[NotAProgDirector]

Hi, I'm premed. Haven't started year 1 yet but I have a question about SOAP.

I've been checking out the data on the NRMP reports and there's a column called "number unfilled" positions for each specialty in the table detailing MD/DO/IMG total applicants.

But I'm confused. Between tables showing that the total number of applicants highly exceed the number of positions available, how can there by anything but 0 for number of unfilled positions?

It means that they didn't fill their positions with the people they interviewed. Often this is simply because they didn't interview enough people. Sometimes it's because the field isn't competitive and there are more spots than applicants. And sometimes its because it's easier to fill spots later -- you don't need to interview tons of people, and you just find people to take the spots (since as you mention, there are more applicants than spots). But the quality of applicants post-match tends to be lower (although there are always some great people who just don't get a spot)

Does that mean that certain programs are so stingy that even with a tremendous number of applicants, they would still rather not give the position to anyone?

No, this is just unfilled after the match. Programs can then fill any open spots any way they want. All spots are likely to be full by the time training starts.

This says that there are 2706 total MD applicant but only 1457 were filled. How can there by 3 unfilled positions? Why not just give the 3 positions to the remaining 1249 people that didn't get it?

Most likely, those 1249 people applied for the 3 open positions. Perhaps some people who didn't apply to anesthesia and failed to match in another field applied also. Ultimately, 3 people got those spots. Even if only the people who applied to anesthesia got a spot, there would still be 1249 - 3 = 1246 people who didn't get a spot.

Which leads me to my practical question:
If I am like the 1457, and fail to get in pre-soap, If I SOAP, are one of the 3 unfilled positions guaranteed to be filled by me? Afterall, there would still be 2 unfilled positions left.

No, you'd be applying with those other 1249 people. You'd have a 3/1249 = 0.24% chance of getting a spot (that's not really true, would depend upon how competitive you were and lots of other factors, it's not random). But bottom line is that if 1200+ people are competing for 3 spots, you don't want to be one of those 1200 people.

EDIT: Math nerd alert. What is the likelihood of getting a spot if there are 3 spots and 1249 applicants?
My first thought was 3/1249 = 0.00240192
But then I thought it might be 1/1249 + 1/1248 + 1/1247 - since you'd have a 1/1249 for the first spot, and then 1/1248 for the second. that's 0.00240385. But I think that's too high, since if you get the first spot, you don't need the other terms.
So then I thought it might be 1 - [(1248/1249) * (1247/1248) * (1246/1247)]. that simplifies to 1 - (1246/1249) = (1249 - 1246)/1249 = 3/1249.

So I think I was right the first time?

And if it's the case that (if we assume) that each year, there's always unfilled positions, why not just do 0 applications and only SOAP to get the leftover 2 or 3 positions in anesthesiology

See above, really bad idea.

 

[sunshinefl]

Hi, I'm premed. Haven't started year 1 yet but I have a question about SOAP.

I've been checking out the data on the NRMP reports and there's a column called "number unfilled" positions for each specialty in the table detailing MD/DO/IMG total applicants.

But I'm confused. Between tables showing that the total number of applicants highly exceed the number of positions available, how can there by anything but 0 for number of unfilled positions?

Does that mean that certain programs are so stingy that even with a tremendous number of applicants, they would still rather not give the position to anyone?

View attachment 337222

View attachment 337220

This says that there are 2706 total MD applicant but only 1457 were filled. How can there by 3 unfilled positions? Why not just give the 3 positions to the remaining 1249 people that didn't get it?

Which leads me to my practical question:
If I am like the 1457, and fail to get in pre-soap, If I SOAP, are one of the 3 unfilled positions guaranteed to be filled by me? Afterall, there would still be 2 unfilled positions left.

And if it's the case that (if we assume) that each year, there's always unfilled positions, why not just do 0 applications and only SOAP to get the leftover 2 or 3 positions in anesthesiology

Anesthesiology also has categorical PGY1 and advanced PGY2 spots so it’s more complicated to try to evaluate exactly how many people applied to anesthesiology, and how many of those actually matched.