I have been doing a lot of reading, and it seems like the new IBR terms are going to be a great deal for lower paying specialties under high debt. As I understand it, Obama is changing IBR terms via executive order and bypassing congress. The new terms will be 10% AGI and 20 years, instead of 15% and 25 years. This changes the economics of just doing minimum IBR payments for the entire term completely. If it is a promissory note containing the 10% and 20 years terms that you sign at the beginning of IBR, it would mean that it is much harder for the government to retroactively change the deal years down the line when they realize IBR is fiscally unsustainable.
Some simplified numbers: Let's say I go to a standard private school and end up with $250k of debt under the current ridiculously high tuition rates. Let's assume I start IBR in residency and do a fellowship afterwards. At the end of ~5-6 years under ~7% interest, this will be some where above $400k on principle. On a 20 year term, there is only 14-15 years of 10% minimum payments to make. If you work as a hospitalist at $180k, you'll probably pay a bit over $200k total over the remaining years in the 20 year term. Since the 10% payments don't even cover the interest of the loan, the remaining balance should be somewhere north of $700k+. Assuming they don't change the income tax rule, you take a ~$250k hit in income tax from the forgiveness. This is around $500k in total payments, which is less than what you would pay under a standard 10 year repayment term and you get the added benefit of paying over a longer time period, giving you enough left over money to invest a portion of your remaining income after taxes.
Am I doing anything wrong here? Under the new rules it seems like a steal for generalist specialties. If it is signed into a promissory note, how can it be taken away legally? This all assumes that PSLF is taken away or tightened up, which is a reasonable assumption. I think these changes will happen because they will be by executive order.
Some simplified numbers: Let's say I go to a standard private school and end up with $250k of debt under the current ridiculously high tuition rates. Let's assume I start IBR in residency and do a fellowship afterwards. At the end of ~5-6 years under ~7% interest, this will be some where above $400k on principle. On a 20 year term, there is only 14-15 years of 10% minimum payments to make. If you work as a hospitalist at $180k, you'll probably pay a bit over $200k total over the remaining years in the 20 year term. Since the 10% payments don't even cover the interest of the loan, the remaining balance should be somewhere north of $700k+. Assuming they don't change the income tax rule, you take a ~$250k hit in income tax from the forgiveness. This is around $500k in total payments, which is less than what you would pay under a standard 10 year repayment term and you get the added benefit of paying over a longer time period, giving you enough left over money to invest a portion of your remaining income after taxes.
Am I doing anything wrong here? Under the new rules it seems like a steal for generalist specialties. If it is signed into a promissory note, how can it be taken away legally? This all assumes that PSLF is taken away or tightened up, which is a reasonable assumption. I think these changes will happen because they will be by executive order.