I'm an EM doc married to a neurologist. We have this conversation at least once a month.
1. Are there any randomized trials supporting the phenomenon of "tPA-aborted stroke"? The only thing that I am familiar with is the phase I NINDS trial which showed no difference at 24 hours.
2. A commonly cited refrain is that after re-analysis of NINDs and ECASS-3 to adjust for baseline indifference, the statistical significance of the outcomes was lost. This leads to the often-quoted "no RCTs support the administration of tPA" and was what primarily led to the change in theNNT.com.
3. The literature on primary EVT without tPA (SKIP, DIRECT-MT) seem somewhat mixed, possibly because of the non-inferiority trial design. Are there any current or upcoming trials that are expected to provide clinical equipoise on the topic?
"1. Are there any randomized trials supporting the phenomenon of "tPA-aborted stroke"? The only thing that I am familiar with is the phase I NINDS trial which showed no difference at 24 hours."
It depends on what you mean by “tPA aborted stroke”. Since you are referencing NINDS part 1, it seems you mean early neurological improvement (ENI).
Though NINDS part 1 was not statistically significant for ENI, there was a trend. For the combined group OR 1.2 (1-1.4 CI, p=0.06) and for the 0-90 min it was significant OR 1.3 (1-1.7 CI, p=0.02).
In post hoc analysis, the median NIHSS was significantly different between the groups, and interestingly any other definition of ENI (i.e. NIHSS>5, NIHSS >6 and so on) would have also been significant.
Another post-hoc analysis showed that if they used % change in NINDS it would have also been significant.
At 24 hours tPA patients also had smaller infarcts compared to placebo.
Effect of intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator on ischemic stroke lesion size measured by computed tomography. NINDS; The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) rt-PA Stroke Study Group - PubMed
Clearly, the tPA groups had lower (better) NIHSS scores and had more improvement than the placebo group at 24 hours.
Many tPA studies do not measure ENI, but the ones that do as a
secondary outcome have demonstrated that ENI is statistically greater with tPA: ECASS 1, ATLANTIS A (the trial was cut short though), EXTEND-TPA, BEST-MSU study
Also improved recanalization rates at 24 hours of intracranial occlusions occur substantially more with tPA.
Therefore, looking at all the evidence ENI does occur with tPA.
"2. A commonly cited refrain is that after re-analysis of NINDs and ECASS-3 to adjust for baseline indifference, the statistical significance of the outcomes was lost. This leads to the often-quoted "no RCTs support the administration of tPA" and was what primarily led to the change in theNNT.com."
Regarding NINDS re-analysis:
Important to keep in mind that the NIHSS imbalance occurred in part 2 in the 90-180 min group. There was no imbalance in NINDS part 1, which was an independent study, and it was statistically significant for the 90 day outcome. Also in part 2, the 0-90 minute subgroup was statistically significant, and no imbalance in baseline NIHSS. If the imbalance can explain the treatment effect, how do we explain part 1 and the 0-90 minute subgroup?
There was a special independent committee composed of emergency medicine physicians and statisticians that adjusted for the baseline differences in NINDS and determined that it would not account for the treatment effect. There have been around 5 re-analyses of the data adjusting for the imbalance and all observed the treatment effect persisted.
Did that satisfy the skeptics? No, in 2009 Hoffman et al. performed a “graphical re-analysis” using the NIHSS at 90 days, keep in mind that NIHSS is not the primary outcome at 90 days and it is not a measure of disability. Hoffman performed zero statistics and left it up to the reader to decide on the interpretation. Importantly, he did not take into account the ordinal, non-interval nature of the NIHSS, and his graphical charts utilized improper scales and therefore hid the treatment effect. Saver et al. 2010 wrote an entire paper refuting the claims of Hoffman, it has been 10 years and Hoffman has yet to respond to Saver’s points. When graphed by Saver the 90-day NIHSS shows: “tPA patients on average recover two thirds of the way toward normal versus half-way toward normal for placebo patients, with a particular increase in the rate of complete recovery with tPA.”
What do skeptics do, they cite Hoffman’s paper without even mentioning everything else! Gives the reader a skewed perception of reality. This is not scholarship or fair criticism.
See this article by the same NNT author that illustrates my point:
After Re-Analysis, No Trials Show Efficacy of tPA in Acute Ischemic Stroke - ACEP Now
Regarding ECASS3 re-analysis:
Alper et al. 2020 did find statistical significance adjusting for the baseline differences in ECASS3, however he required to organize the data according to the original paper. A fair criticism by Alper is that according to him these conditions were not prespecified but post-hoc. There is a previous study adjusting for baseline difference in ECASS3 and they observed the treatment effect persisted.
Importantly, 2812 patients from a pooled meta-analysis support that time window.
Lastly, post hoc data cannot change the conclusion of a RCT, that would be a gross over interpretation. If that would be the case, then I would claim after
re-analysis ALL tPA studies are now positive, after all for all the tPA studies there is post hoc data demonstrating benefit.
"3. The literature on primary EVT without tPA (SKIP, DIRECT-MT) seem somewhat mixed, possibly because of the non-inferiority trial design. Are there any current or upcoming trials that are expected to provide clinical equipoise on the topic?"
There are 6 trials in total, some still not published. 4 out of 6 trials failed to demonstrate non-inferiority. The 2 European/north American trials failed to demonstrate non-inferiority.
A pooled meta-analysis is on its way. IMO, thrombolysis (TNK or tPA) prior to thrombectomy is here to stay, but will probably be skipped in individual cases where the bleeding risk is high.
DEVT: positive
DIRECT-MT: positive
SKIP: failed to demonstrate non-inferiority
Mr CLEAN NO IV: failed to demonstrate non-inferiority
SWIFT DIRECT: failed to demonstrate non-inferiority
DIRECT SAFE: failed to demonstrate non-inferiority