JAP,
You can apply for a residency and negotiate your follow-on orders at the same time, you don't need to renounce the match if you want to apply. However, you might be able to lock in a set of orders to Italy early in the year and be done with it. Or you can get a set of orders with the understanding that you will pull out of them if you get picked up for residency.
The detailer does have some power at the selection board, so if you've agreed to fill a hard-sell billet pending residency selection you might have a smaller chance of matching. Generally, the overseas GMO tours were not hard to get IF they were also attached to some sort of deploying command (marines or a ship). As always, the straight-up clinic jobs were competitive and often went to 2nd tour GMOs.
DD
